Gray Rhinos

https://www.thegrayrhino.com/

Why Humanity Destoryed Itself

https://www.theschooloflife.com/thebookoflife/why-humanity-destroyed-itself/

Overreaction to Fearsome Risk

https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/overreaction_risks.pdf

Limts of Prediction

How I Learned to Stop Worrying About Black Swans and Love Analysis:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-63-no-4/pdfs/Limits-of-Prediction.pdf