Sex Spies at Foreign Embassies

"It may be just coincidence, but in many countries the percentage of very attractive young women filling clerical roles at the U.S. Embassy appears many times higher than the number of attractive young women in the general population. This raises the specter of “honey traps,” or sexual entrapment schemes aimed at U.S. employees. Such schemes have involved female FSNs in the past. In one well known example, the KGB employed attractive female operatives against the Marine Security Guards in Moscow, an operation that led to an extremely grave compromise of the U.S. Embassy there."

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081029_counterintelligence_implications_foreign_service_national_employees

Murder Capitals of the World

Papua New Guinea made the list, huh? Yup, it has nearly an 80% unemployment rate, after all.

*Caracas, Venezuela
*Cape Town, South Africa
*New Orleans, United States
*Moscow, Russia
*Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4480

What Embargo?

US Exports to Cuba (excluding charitable donations):

1957: $628 million
2000: $0.2 million
2008: $800 million

"What would happen if the embargo were scrapped? Computerized models predict relatively modest results."

http://www.ppionline.org/ppi_ci.cfm?knlgAreaID=108&subsecID=900003&contentID=254809

Democracy Not on the March

Is democracy waning?

People living in electoral democracies:

2002: 3.6 billion out of 6.2 billion
2007: 3.3 billion out of 6.6 billion

http://www.ppionline.org/ppi_ci.cfm?knlgAreaID=108&subsecid=900003&contentid=254813

On Cravings

http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/food/articles/2008/10/08/cravings/?s_campaign=yahoo

The End of Stick Shift?

The consensus is in: Stick shifts cost more, are generally less fuel-efficient, and are not as fast as automatic vehicles.

"Perhaps the only argument left for manuals that holds any water: A stick is simply more fun. It makes you feel like the pilot, in control instead of along for the ride."

http://editorial.autos.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=656470

Stock Market Futures

An Explanation of Futures and Fair Value
http://www.allstocks.com/html/fair_value_s_p_futures_or_prem.html

Find Futures Here:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937

Build Your Own Tax Policy!

Try it for free!

http://www.taxpolicy.com/

2009 Taxes: McCain vs. Obama

Click on the link and find a nice chart (near the bottom) from The Tax Policy Center --

http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/106049/McCain,-Obama-and-Your-Tax-Bill

The Next Araki?

Yonehara Yasumasa.

http://www.myspace.com/4hornyone

http://www.loveyone.blogspot.com/

http://walker.zozo.jp/yasumasayonehara/

Stock Market Game Scaring Future Investors?

This game, prevalent in middle schools, may sure scare the hell out of young people investing in the real market...

"Michael, a 13-year-old at Wilmington's Skyline Middle School, is one of 700,000 players in the 'Stock Market Game,' a scholastic contest in which students from grades four through 12 get a hypothetical $100,000 to invest in stocks, bonds or mutual funds. The game is run by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, Wall Street's biggest trade group. One view is that this year's iteration of the game isn't doing much to prime the next generation of customers for the association's members."

Playing the Market, These Kids Are Losing a Lot of Play Money
by Jennifer Levitz
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122523644863577999.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

Cost of Raising a Child

Based on the calculators, the numbers are extremely low-ball figures. For instance, the calculator assumes recreation with only cost $330 annually for a child. Also note that the figures do not include the cost of college and beyond.

"A middle income family with a child born in 2007, will pay a total of $204,060 to care for that child until its 18th birthday, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)."

http://usgovinfo.about.com/b/2008/03/28/the-cost-to-raise-a-child-today.htm

Cost of Raising a Child Calculator:
http://www.babycenter.com/cost-of-raising-child-calculator

Bankrate's Calculator:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/calc/raiseChild.asp

25 Most Expensive Colleges in 2008-2009

1. Sarah Lawrence College $53,166
2. George Washington University $50,312
3. New York University $50,182
4. Georgetown University $49,689
5. Connecticut College $49,385
6. Bates College $49,350
7. Johns Hopkins University $49,278
8. Skidmore College $49,266
9. Scripps College $49,236
10. Middlebury College $49,210

http://consumerist.com/5069146/25-most-expensive-colleges-for-2008+2009

Happier: Republicans or Democrats?

"The partisan gap [in which Republicans are more happy] is impervious to electoral ups and downs. It has something to do with worldview...they have more money. They have more friends. They are more religious. They are healthier. They are more likely to be married. They like their commmunities better. They like their jobs more. They are more satisfied with their family...the hypothesis: those who think they can control their destinies are happier."

A Happiness Gap: Doomcrats and Republigrins
by David Montgomery
http://www.courant.com/news/nationworld/hc-happy1025.artoct25,0,5544380.story

Indicators of the Day: Ted Spread & 2-Yr. Treasury Yields

*Ted Spread: This measures the perceived risks of borrowing money. It swells when investors lose confidence, and narrows when they gain confidence in such loans. It represents the difference between the interest rates on loans bwtween banks and short-term US government debt, or T-Bills.

*2-Year Treasury Yields: When investors get scared, they flock to buy US government debt for safety. That pushes up prices on Treasurys and yields down. In this crisis, market watchers generally would like to see yields go up, which would indicate an increased appetite for risk, becaue that means they're more willing to invest.

Term of the Day: "Texas Hedge"

"A faulty strategy that increases the risk; what looked like a hedge (protection) turns out instead to increase the exposure."

http://www.anz.com/edna/dictionary.asp?action=content&content=texas_hedge

Putting US Corporate Taxes In Perspective

"The US corporate tax burden is smaller than average for developed countries. Corporations in 19 members states of the OECD paid 16.1% of corporate profits in taxes between 2000 and 2005, on average, while corporations in the US paid 13.4%. The US statutory tax rate is 35%. Because the US tax code offers so many deductions, credits and other mechanisms by which corporations can reduce their taxes, the actual percentage of profits that US corporations pay in taex - or what analysts refre to as their effective tax rate - is not high, compared to other developed countries."

Putting US Corporate Taxes in Perspective
by Chye-Ching Huang
http://www.cbpp.org/10-27-08tax.htm

The End of the JET Program in Japan?

Many prefectures favor ALTs from private dispatch companies over the government-funded JET Program when it comes to English teaching. This has been going on for some years now. On top of that, there is an overall decline in JET applicants...

http://www.letsjapan.org/schools-choosing-alts-over-jet.html

Statistics on El Bulli

15 – Tables per day
50 – Guests per day
160 – Days open for business
8,000 – Guests per year
7–20,000 (4–12,400) – kilometers (miles) travelled by guests to eat at elBulli
70 – Staff members working at the height of the season
40 – Chefs
26 – People working in the dining room
8 (5) – Kilometres (miles) walked per day, on average, by each waiter
11,200 – Staff meals per year
12,000 (129,165) – Sqaure metres (square feet) of land by the sea
80 (860) – Square metres (square feet) of terrace
350 (3,770) – Square metres (square feet) of kitchen space
250 (2,690) – Square metres (square feet) of dining room space
200 Euros – per meal in 2008
230 Euros – per person including drinks in 2008 (on average)
170-200 – ingredients on the menu
1,500 – Cocktails, snacks, tapas-dishes, avant-desserts, desserts and morphings served per day
700 (25) – Grams (ounces) of food per meal per guest
5,600 (5 ½) – Kilograms (tons) total weight of food consumed per year
200 – Kitchen cloths and aprons used every night
1,000 – Pieces of cutlery used every night
10,000 – Bottles opened per year
55 – Types of glassware
750 – Glasses moved around the restaurant daily
1,666 – Wines on the list
40 – Different vintages
216 – Grape varieties
325 – Different DOCs on the wine list
2 – Wine ageing cellars
4,000 – Hours of creative work per year

http://nymag.com/daily/food/2008/10/adria.html

Bailout Money Better Spent: El Bulli

"For 700 billion dollars, I could shout a meal at El Bulli for every person in the world's 5 most populous nations, 27 exquisite courses for all of China, India, USA, Indonesia and Brazil. As El Bulli only takes 2000 bookings per annum, it would take 1.5 million years to feed them all."

How Much is 700 Billion Dollars
by Phil Lees
http://www.sbs.com.au/blogarticle/108387/How-much-food-is-700-billion-dollars

What Happens if GM Goes Bankrupt?

The answer from Paul Kedrosky: not much.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/103116/What-Happens-if-GM-Goes-Bankrupt-Not-Much?tickers=gm,f

Gillardeau Oysters

"The Gillardeau family's small private company, founded 110 years ago by the sea near La Rochelle and the Ille d'Oleron in western France, produces only 'speciales,' oysters that are fleshier and, consequently, more expensive than the standard. The Gillardeau name has become associated with fine oyster, rather like Hermes for neckties."

A French Family Dynasty Reinvests the Oyster
by Steven Erlanger
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/europe/27oyster.html?em

Cheating Update

"A handful of new studies suggest surprising changes in the marital landscape. Infidelity appears to be on the rise, particularly among older men and young couples. Notably, women appear to be closing the adultery gap: younger women appear to be cheating on their spouses nearly as often as men. Theories vary about why more people appear to be cheating. Among older people, a host of newer drugs and treatments are making it easier to be sexual, and in some cases unfaithful — Viagra and other remedies for erectile dysfunction, estrogen and testosterone supplements to maintain women’s sex drive and vaginal health, even advances like better hip replacements. In younger couples, the increasing availability of pornography on the Internet, which has been shown to affect sexual attitudes and perceptions of 'normal' behavior, may be playing a role in rising infidelity. Dr. Fisher notes that infidelity is common across cultures, and that in hunting and gathering societies, there is no evidence that women are any less adulterous than men. "

Love, Sex, and the Changing Landscape of Infidelity
by Tara Parker-Pope
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/health/28well.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin

Game Theory Course Online

Free from Yale

http://oyc.yale.edu/economics/game-theory/

Yen Carry Trade Unwinds

"As interest rates look set to be slashed around the developed world and risk-appetite slumps further, carry trades – largely involving the Japanese yen – are being unwound. Money is pouring back into Japan, raising the value of its currency. The speed at which the steamroller approached surprised many. Not everyone will manage to scramble out of the way in time. "

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e63a2b3e-a45b-11dd-8104-000077b07658.html

Milestones in the Yen's History
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7932234

Why Gold Has Lost Its "Save Haven" Status

*Strength in the dollar
*Selling by hedge funds and commodity indexers facing redemptions
*The global nature of the crisis (gold rallies when it is a US-centric problem)

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/102402/Why-Gold-Lost-Its-%27Safe-Haven%27-Status-and-How-It-Can-Get-Its-Mojo-Back?tickers=GLD,%5EDJI,RBS,AIG,TLT,UUP,UDN

Sushi Bullies

Based on the article, "sushi bullies" are generally Japanse chefs living abroad who want to maintain some type of Japanse tradition. If a restaurant is good and has enough customers, I don't think "sushi bullies" would scare off a significant amount of customers. But why lose a single customer at all? To me it shows a sense of snobbery.

"You have entered the domain of the sushi bullies -- top sushi chefs who serve only what they want, how they want it and to whom they want. Their rules are often posted on signs throughout their restaurants. Some chefs are notorious for ejecting patrons who annoy them... Higher gas prices may be partly to blame for the sushi dictators' increasingly inflexible ways. Chefs say they are paying 30% to 50% more for staples like tuna and yellowtail, compared to two years ago, because the spike in fuel costs makes both deep-sea fishing and transporting the catch more expensive. At the same time, disappearing fish populations around the world have made some chefs particularly passionate about serving sushi in its purest and simplest form."

Fact: There are about 9,700 full-service Japanese restaurants in the United States, up from 7,800 a decade ago, according to Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm.

Sushi Bullies
by Katy McLaughlin
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122480233710964683-email.html

"5S" Wave Sweeping the US

I'm not sure how heatlhy this is...

"5S is a key concept of the lean manufacturing techniques that have made makers of everything from cars to candy bars more efficient. The S's stand for sort, straighten, shine, standardize and sustain. Lately, 5S has been moving from the plant floor to the cubicle at hundreds of offices around the country, adding desk cleaning to the growing list of demands on employees."

Neatness Counts at Kyocera and at Others in the 5S Club
by Julie Jargon
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122505999892670159.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

Best Hotel Room Views in US

The Amangani in Jackson Wyoming has a nasty view indeed...
http://travel.yahoo.com/p-hotel-363568-action-pictures-amangani-i;_ylt=AmAHE3MTX2PLDJVOaDMJd9fiphQB (Click on the picture with the women sitting in a tub outside overlooking the mountains.)

Rooms With the Best Views
by Andrew Harper
http://travel.yahoo.com/p-interests-23890708;_ylc=X3oDMTF2bW5jdGVmBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEX3MDMjcxOTQ4MQRzZWMDZnAtdG9kYXltb2QEc2xrA2hvdGVsdmlld3MtMjAwOC0xMC0xOA--

New Sustainable Sushi Guide

I wonder if this guide, which color-codes popular sushi selections based on whether they are prepared using seafood that has been caught or farmed in ways that harm the ocean or pose health risks to diners, will have any impact on sushi prices in the US. Will more people order the "sustainable" sushi - thus making demand and prices rise? If that were the case, many tasty treats like bluefin tuna and unagi (which are not recommended in the guide) should be cheaper!

Sushi that the guide recommends eating:
-Amaebi
-Ikura (wild Alaskan salmon)
-Kanikama
-Masago
-Mirugai
-Sake (wild)
-Shiro maguro
-Surimi
-Suzuki

Sushi that the guide says is fine to eat:
-Hirame (Pacific)
-Hotate
-Ika
-Kani
-Maguro (imported troll/pole)
-Tai
-Toro (bigeye/yellowfin tuna; imported troll/pole)
-Uni

Sushi that the guide recommends avoiding
-Ebi
-Hamachi
-Hirame (Atlantic)
-Hon Maguro
-Ikura (Atlantic salmon; farmed)
-Maguro (imported longline)
-Sake (farmed)
-Tako
-Toro (bluefin tuna)
-Toro (imported longline)
-Unagi

Finding Sustainable Sushi
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/21/AR2008102100433.html

Here is a link to the sushi guide, a la Environmental Defense Fund (EDF)
http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagID=29774

5 Simple Things to Stay Sane

Here is what the British government think tank Foresight says in its Mental Capital and Wellbeing report... Can you think of anything else?

Connect: Developing relationships with family, friends, colleagues and neighbours will enrich your life and bring you support.

Be active: Sports, hobbies such as gardening or dancing, or just a daily stroll will make you feel good and maintain mobility and fitness.

Be curious: Noting the beauty of everyday moments as well as the unusual and reflecting on them helps you to appreciate what matters to you.

Learn: Fixing a bike, learning an instrument, cooking – the challenge and satisfaction brings fun and confidence.

Give: Helping friends and strangers links your happiness to a wider community and is very rewarding.

Do Five Simple Things to Stay Sane, Say Scientists
by Mark Henderson
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/mental_health/article4988978.ece

The "Fear Index"

"The VIX (officially the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index) measure volatility, the technical term for those wrenching market swings. A rising VIX is usually regarded as a sign that fear, rather than greed, is ruling the market. Put simply, teh VIX measures the degree to which investors think stocks will swing violently in the next 30 days. It is calculated in real time throughout the trading day, fluctuating minute to minute. The VIX, in its current form, measures premiums paid by investors who buy options tied to the price of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. In times of confusion or anxiety on Wall Street, investors are more eager to buy this insurance, and thus agree to pay higher premiums to get them. This pushes up the level of the VIX."

When Investors Sweat and Tremble, Eyes Turn to the Fear Index
by Michael Grynbaum
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20vix.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Track the VIX here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Evix

Why Falling Coffee Prices Cause Civil War

It is interesting how different commodities create different impacts on the economy. A sharp decrease in price of labor-intensive commodities (like coffee beans) seem to cause war, while a sharp rise in capital-intensive commodities (like oil, gold, diamonds) appears to cause war. In the capital-intensive case, would be political rogues and warlords get rich and can start problems...

"How are commodities prices connected to civil strife? Poor farmers impoverished by lower crop prices may be eager recruits for rebel groups who can promise a better livelihood from stolen loot than what the soil can provide. A cheaper cup of joe may thus translate into conflict in the coffee-growing world. (It has, in fact, been suggested that the mass murder in 1994 of perhaps 1 million Tutsis in Rwanda was triggered by the 50 percent fall in the price of Arabica beans, the economic lifeblood of Rwanda's poor farmers. Then again, lower prices may also mean less conflict. If resource prices fall, then there's less wealth to bicker over, less reason to fight, and less cash on hand to purchase further armaments."

Will There Be Blood
by Ray Fisman
http://www.slate.com/id/2202653/

The Starbuck Economic Bellweather

Washington, DC has a major concentration of Starbucks but it seems to be weathering the storm just fine...

"I propose the Starbucks theory of international economics. The higher the concentration of expensive, nautically themed, faux-Italian-branded Frappuccino joints in a country's financial capital, the more likely the country is to have suffered catastrophic financial losses. My tentative theory: Having a significant Starbucks presence is a pretty significant indicator of the degree of connectedness to the form of highly caffeinated, free-spending capitalism that got us into this mess. It's also a sign of a culture's willingness to abandon traditional norms and ways of doing business in favor of fast-moving American ones."

Will Your Recession be Tall, Grande, or Venti?
by Daniel Gross
http://www.slate.com/id/2202707/

Why Do We Tax Corporations?

Wouldn't it be easier just to tax individuals? Not necessarily...

Why Do We Tax Corporations?
by Christopher Beam
http://www.slate.com/id/2201854/

Decison Markets - The Future for Policymakers?

"Decision markets are information markets designed to inform a particular policy decision, by directly estimating relevant consequences of that decision."

http://hanson.gmu.edu/impolite.pdf

The Truth About Why Men Cheat

Fact: 40% of cheating men met the other woman at work.

Fact: Only 12% of cheating men said their mistress was more physically attractive than their wife.

http://dating.personals.yahoo.com/singles/relationships/24096/dating-101-the-truth-about-why-men-cheat;_ylc=X3oDMTQ1dGpxbzBoBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEX3MDMjAyMzc3NTIxNARrA0RhdGluZyAxMDE6IFRoZSBUcnV0aCBBYm91dCBXaHkgTWVuIENoZWF0BHNlYwNmcF90b2RheQRzbGsDZGF0aW5nLTEwMS10aGUtdHJ1dGgtYWJvdXQtd2h5LW1lbi1jaGVhdAR6egNhYmM-

Banana Fad Hits Japan

If only Chiquita can get into the market before the fad dies...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20081017/wl_time/japansgoesbananasforanewdiet;_ylt=AuOSZE4qlHV5hlB_CtP5ZVIazJV4

Rogue Intrade McCain Trader Drove Up Stock

I wonder if this guy was planning to assassinate Obama in order to get a huge payout... Another interesting thing to consider is that the more electronic prediction markets out there, the more of a chance there is to spot manipulation like this.

"An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that a single investor’s purchases prompted 'unusual' price swings that significantly boosted the prediction that Sen. John McCain will become president. Over the past several weeks, the investor has pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars into one of Intrade’s predictive markets for the presidential election, the company said, resulting in repeated monetary losses through a strategy that belies any financial motive."

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=cqmidday-000002976305

Trading Variance in Election Predictions Raises Questions
by Noam Cohen
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20predict.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

What Happens to Your Web Stuff When You Die?

An explanation on several aspects of web activity...

http://www.techradar.com/news/world-of-tech/what-happens-to-your-online-stuff-when-you-die--475705

If the World Could Vote

It takes awhile for the map to load its full color, but it is worth the wait...

http://iftheworldcouldvote.com/results

$596 Trillion?

"Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin issued a call on Tuesday for regulation of the "over the counter" derivatives market, which has an estimated size of about $596 trillion. By contrast, the value of the world's financial assets—including all stock, bonds, and bank deposits—was pegged at $167 trillion last year by McKinsey. How can the derivatives market be larger than the entire world's financial wealth? Because the same assets might be involved in several different derivatives..."

By the way, what comes after a trillion? (The answer: quadrillion)
http://www.jimloy.com/math/billion.htm

$596 Trillion
by Jacob Leibenluft
http://www.slate.com/id/2202263/

Eating Out

This is from a chart on meals eaten out per person, per year from the 2005 Atlas of Food. I am giving rough estimates since the exact numbers are not given. The Japanese figure is astounding. Is it the after-work dining culture (iinkai/snack clubs/sushi joints/ramen-ya/yatai) that helps contribute to the number? The abundance of restaurants? Do the Japanese appreciate food/dining out more than other cultures? Is it because the housing space is relatively small that they feel they need to get out? Relatively cheap cost? Also, is most of that dining related to "fast-food" joints? How does one even define fast food?

Japan: 190
US: 125
Spain: 105
Germany: 80
UK: 78
Italy: 77
France: 76
Netherlands: 74
Belgium: 67

On Nouriel Roubini

Those crazy economists...

"The 50-year-old Iranian-Jewish economist is a promiscuous Facebook friend who draws a cosmopolitan crowd to the frequent parties at his Tribeca loft—an apartment with walls indented with plaster vulvas, incidentally."

http://gawker.com/5063337/the-secret-pleasures-of-dr-doom

What 5 Things Do You Do To Stay Sane?

"A group of volunteers, led by Andy Gibson and supported by the RSA and Young Foundation, is asking people to reveal what five things they do daily or regularly to stay sane. The project, called Mindapples, was inspired by the 5-a-day healthy eating campaign that aimed to teach us how consuming five pieces of fruit or veg a day can help us to stay physically healthy. Mindapples asks what the equivalent is for mental well-being?"

http://bps-research-digest.blogspot.com/2008/10/what-five-things-do-you-do-to-stay-sane.html

Mindapples
http://mindapples.org/

How to Deal With Political Emails

This is from a recent letter sent to Ask Amy (WPost). What a brilliant idea...

"My mother is famous for sending negative political e-mails to all of her family members and friends who do not share her political beliefs. We have asked her for years to stop because we find it offensive. We delete them, but the fact that she doesn't respect our boundaries wears us down. Then my cousin told her that she was tired of asking her to stop sending the political material she found insutling, and that if she refused to comply, for each one Mom sent, my cousin would make a $25 contribution to the opposing party in Mom's name! After receiving a few thank-you letters from 'those people,' at least Mom has quieted down, and the rest of us get a chuckle out of it."

On Social Security

Facts:

*Social Security benefits for 50 million people will go up 5.8 percent next year (starting in January 2009), the largest increase in more than a quarter century.

*The typical retiree's monthly check will go from $1,090 currently to $1,153.

*The average monthly check for a disabled worker will go from $1,006 to $1,064.

*If no changes are made, the Social Security trust fund is projected to deplete its reserves in 2041 and will begin paying out more than it collects in benefits even sooner, starting in 2017.

Social Security Benefits Going Up by 5.8 Percent
by Martin Crutsinger
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081016/ap_on_bi_ge/social_security

Weird Food of the Week: Frog Leg Pizza

"The 'Hopper' contains eight limbs on a traditional base with capers and an anchovy sorbet. The £17.95 dish has angered campaigners who slammed it as 'barbaric' — because frogs’ legs are amputated while they are still alive. An Animal Aid spokeswoman urged people to boycott London chain Eco."

Frog Pizza...Get it While it's Hop
by Alex Peake
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1815988.ece

American's Flunk Simple 3-Question Political Survey

"The survey, conducted between April 30 and June 1 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, measured the political knowledge of 3,612 U.S. adults. Participants were asked to name the controlling party of the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. secretary of state and Great Britain's prime minister. Overall, just 18 percent of participants answered all three questions correctly. More than 50 percent of Americans knew that the Democrats have a majority in the House, while 42 percent could identify the secretary of state (Condoleezza Rice). Less than 30 percent could name the prime minister of Great Britain (Gordon Brown). "

A detailed breakdown of the percentage of individuals answering each of the three questions correctly from the different news audiences:

*The New Yorker/Atlantic: 71 percent (correctly identified Democrats as the majority in the House), 71 percent (correctly identified Condeleeza Rice), 59 percent (correctly identified Gordon Brown)
*NPR: 73 percent, 72 percent, 57 percent
*Hannity & Colmes: 84 percent, 73 percent, 49 percent
*Rush Limbaugh: 83 percent, 71 percent, 41 percent
*Colbert Report: 73 percent, 65 percent, 49 percent
*Daily Show: 65 percent, 48 percent, 36 percent
*NewsHour: 66 percent, 52 percent, 47 percent
*O'Reilly Factor: 70 percent, 60 percent, 41 percent
*C-SPAN: 63 percent, 59 percent, 35 percent
*Letterman/Leno: 51 percent, 42 percent, 31 percent
*CNN: 59 percent, 48 percent, 29 percent
*National Enquirer: 44 percent, 32 percent, 22 percent

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20081015/sc_livescience/americansflunksimple3questionpoliticalsurvey

The "Playboy Playmate Effect"

I wonder at what point men start to do this. Is it when they lose large amounts in their stock portfolio, when the unemployment rate increases, when the media portrays a bleak picture, etc...

"During difficult economic conditions, Playmates are slightly heavier, older, and taller and have larger waists and chins and smaller eyes. A team of evolutionary psychologists at the universities of Liverpool and Newcastle found that in times of scarcity, men's biological instinct is to be drawn to women who appear fertile and able to cope with manual labor, pregnancy and childbirth."

-From the book 'Do Gentlemen Really Prefer Blondes'

"Playboy Playmate Curves: Changes in Facial and Body Feature Preferences Across Social and Economic Conditions."
http://psp.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/30/9/1186

French Laundry "Launch Pad" Effect

"Gaining admission to the French Laundry kitchen is the food equivalent of joining an exclusive club. Purveyors must attract the attention of French Laundry chefs, then survive intense hazing: questions about the taste and consistency of their product and the philosophy behind it. Once they're in, the restaurant supports, even honors, its producers...Other elite restaurants also can provide a launching pad, but no other is as famous. If the French Laundry is using it, the thinking goes, it has to be good."

Making the Laundry List
by Jane Black
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/14/AR2008101400602.html

All That Money You Lost - Where Did It Go?

A lot of the wealth was just paper wealth - a guess at what something is worth...

"If you once thought your investment portfolio was as good as a suitcase full of twenties, you might suddenly suspect that it's not. In the process, of course, you're losing wealth. But does that mean someone else must be gaining it? Does the world have some fixed amount of wealth that shifts between people, nations and institutions with the ebb and flow of the economy? Jorgenson says no, the amount of wealth in the world 'simply decreases in a situation like this.' And he cautions against assuming that your investment losses mean a gain for someone else - like wealthy stock speculators who try to make money by betting that the market will drop."

All That Money You Lost - Where Did It Go?
by Eric Carvin
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=111&pid=0&sid=1495515&page=1

US Still Top of Global Competitiveness Ranking

"The US has again topped a widely-watched index ranking country competitiveness, despite the financial crisis that has left it and other highly ranked nations facing market meltdown and a prolonged economic downturn. Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden retain their second, third and fourth places respectively in the league table compiled by the Geneva-based World Economic Forum. The WEF’s global competitiveness index this year rates 134 countries on 12 criteria which include quality of education, labour and product market flexibility, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability and 'financial market sophistication.'"

US Retains Top Competitiveness Ranking
by Frances Williams
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/407c7b56-952f-11dd-aedd-000077b07658.html

The End of Bling?

It is interesting that rather than having to cut back on purchases, the wealthy are choosing to cut back on purchases because how they might be seen by others...

"The answer may have a lot to do with how these consumers want to be seen. It's not necessarily a good thing to show up at the tennis club with a new $30,000 crocodile handbag when your friends' net worth has been halved and the Federal Reserve is spending billions to keep the banking system afloat."

The Billion-Dollar Question: Is Bling Over?
by Christina Brinkley
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122351779589918041.html

National Debt Clock Runs Out of Digits

"In a sign of the times, the National Debt Clock in New York City has run out of digits to record the growing figure. As a short-term fix, the digital dollar sign on the billboard-style clock near Times Square has been switched to a figure — the '1' in $10 trillion. It's marking the federal government's current debt at about $10.2 trillion."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/odd_national_debt_clock;_ylt=AvuG5JqrBLm9v4c0ui1lLBADW7oF

Are Bad Times Healthy?

"Whether the current economic slump will take a toll on your own health depends, in part, on your health habits when times are good. And economic studies suggest that people tend not to take care of themselves in boom times - drinking too much, dining on fat-laden restaurant meals, and skipping exercise and doctors' appointments because of work-related time commitments. The value of time is higher during good economic times, said Grant Miller, an assitant professor of medicine at Standford. So people work more and do less of the things that are good for them, like cooking at home and exercising; and people exerpience more stress due to the rigors of hard work during booms."

Are Bad Times Healthy?
by Tara Parker-Pope
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/health/07well.html

"Harvard MBA Indicator"

"One gauge, called the Harvard MBA Indicator, takes into account the kinds of jobs taken by the latest graduating class at Harvard Business School. If more than 30 percent of graduates end up in "market sensitive jobs," which include investment banking, private equity and hedge funds, it's a long-term sell signal for stocks, says Ray Soifer of Soifer Consulting, a former banking analyst who created the index and has tracked it for several years."

In Tough Times, MBA Applications May be an Economic Indicator
by Peter Edmonston
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/in-tough-times-mba-applications-may-be-an-economic-indicator/

Betting Markets on the Nobel Prize

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/nobelprize

History of Political Prediction Markets

"Political future markets, in which investors bet on election outcomes, are often thought a recent invention. Such markets in fact have a long history in many Western countries. This paper traces the operation of political futures markets back to 16th Century Italy, 18th Century Britain, and 19th Century United States. In the United States, election betting was a common part of political campaigns in the antebellum period, but became increasingly concentrated in the organized futures markets in New York City over the postbellum period."

http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14377

Are Markets Leading or Lagging Indicators?

From About.com --

"Leading economic indicators are indicators which change before the economy changes. Stock market returns are a leading indicator, as the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy declines and they improve before the economy begins to pull out of a recession. Leading economic indicators are the most important type for investors as they help predict what the economy will be like in the future."
http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/economic_ind.htm

A discussion with a little more nuance --

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/04/are-markets-lea.html

Google Has New Beer Goggles Alert for Gmail

A cute idea, but I'm not sure if solving a few math problems with prevent people from drunk-emailing...

"When you enable Mail Goggles, it will check that you're really sure you want to send that late night Friday email. And what better way to check than by making you solve a few simple math problems after you click send to verify you're in the right state of mind?"

http://gmailblog.blogspot.com/2008/10/new-in-labs-stop-sending-mail-you-later.html

Economist Mag. Sums Up Financial Crisis With 2 Words...

This, of course, is a spoof - but a very funny (and true) one indeed.

http://consumerist.com/5059758/economist-sums-up-financial-crisis-oh-fuck

Why is the US Currency Strengthening Amid Chaos?

"The dollar is not like any other tender. As the de facto reserve currency of the world, it benefits from global upheaval, even those that originate in the US. 'It's ironic, given that we just messed up big time, the response of foreigners is to pour more money into us,' said Kenneth S. Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard. 'They're not sure where else to go.' Indeed, the appeal of the US reflects a lack of better options. Currency traders are betting that because the US was the first to falter, it will be the first to recover."

In a Weak Climate, the Dollar Has Surprising Muscle
by Mark Landler
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/business/06dollar.html?ref=business

Do Free Samples Work?

I wonder how much of the purchasing done after trying a sample is done by "guilt" - as in trying a product and feeling bad about not buying it...

"Product samples work, according to a study by the research firm Arbitron. More than a third of people (35%) who accept a sample in a store or a mall go on to buy the product that day, the study found. And 58 percent who sampled products said they would buy them in the future. Samples are more effective among people who have not previously heard of the product, Arbitron found. Roughly two-thirds (64%) of people accept samples."

-NYTimes, October 6, 2008

8 in 10 MOCs Have no Business/Econ Background

Sure makes me feel confident about the decisions Congress makes...

"A new analysis shows that more than 8 in 10 members of Congress have no background in economics or business. The findings were released by a group called the Center for Economic and Entrepreneurial Literacy."

Economics Lecturer Run Amok
by Mary Ann Akers & Paul Kane
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/01/AR2008100102817_pf.html

Reading Speed Interpretation

The authors of a new edition of 'Progress in Brain Research,' a book for neurologists, suggest that in most adults a slowdown in reading speed (once assumed to be a sign of decline) actually indicates broader comprehension.

A younger brain may focus more deeply on relevant information, but an older one may take away more overall meaning from the material. The former behavior is fine for many purposes, of course, but the latter is instrumental in acquiring wisdom.

In studies where college students and older adults read material taht included seemingly extraneous information, the older group took a longer time. But when both groups were quizzed on the material - including the extra items - the older adults performed better than the students. The authors credit a gradual widening of attention as a person grows old.

-October 5, Parade Magazine

Intelligence: Then vs. Now

Q: How does human intelligence today compare with that of people 5000 years ago, such as the ancient Egyptians?

A: They were as smart as we are. No noticeable evolution in intelligence has occurred that recently. Scientists say that humans have had modern intelligence for tens of thousands of years. Some say our brainpower goes back even longer.

-Ask Marilyn (WPost, Oct. 4)

Polling Mystery

I can't quite figure out the reasoning behind some polls. Take, for example, the Gallup economic outlook poll. 86% say the economic outlook is getting worse and 11% say it is getting better. Who are those 11%? I concluded that they must be a mix of people: die-hard optimists, people joking around, ignorant people (those who aren't following the economy), and those who are so unaffected by this (so far) that they are oblivious to the economic zeitgeist.

Why is Aspirin Good for Your Heart?

http://health.howstuffworks.com/aspirin-good-for-your-heart.htm

Dollar-Cost Averaging in a Depression

"Then he gave me a little history lesson. In the history of financial markets, people talk about different periods. In the Great Depression, did people make money or lose money? His answer: They lost money only if they sold. You would have done pretty well if you just kept investing the same amount of money at regular intervals, a technique known as dollar-cost averaging. From 1929, the peak of the crash, to 1939, over that 10 years, if you dollar-cost averaged in the S&P 200 every month, you had a 13 percent return annually."

Russ Ramsey Says Stick to Your Investment Plan
by Thomas Heath
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/05/AR2008100501921.html

Open Source Center On Israeli News Media

In Israel, 'newspaper headlines are often about future events rather than past events.' That peculiar assertion is presented by the DNI Open Source Center (OSC) in a new report on Israeli news media. The new report provides descriptive accounts of many major and minor Israeli news outlets, noting their ownership, circulation, political orientation and other distinguishing characteristics.

http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/israelmedia.pdf

Concept of the Day: Moral Hazard

"Moral hazard is the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently from the way it would behave if it were fully exposed to the risk. Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear the full consequences of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to bear some responsibility for the consequences of those actions."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard

Have we Become Socialists?

"What should we call the economic model emerging from this crisis of capitalism? Despite the collectivization of losses and risk, it doesn't qualify as even reluctant socialism. Government ownership of private assets is being presented as a last-ditch expedient, not a policy goal. Yet it's inaccurate to describe our economy, either pre- or post-Paulson, as simply laissez faire. A system in which government must frequently intervene to protect the world from the results of private financial misjudgment is modified capitalism—part invisible hand, part helping hand. This leaves us with a pressing problem of both conceptualization and nomenclature."

Name That Economy
by Jacob Weisberg
http://www.slate.com/id/2201534/

"Toshin" Funds

Recently I ran across a new Japanese word - "toshin" These are essentially Japanese investment trusts. I am curious how they are different from a sovereign wealth fund...

Quote of the Day

"You need to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

-Warren Buffett commenting on when to buy stocks. The question seems to be how do you know when the switch is taking place. For example, a few weeks ago there was a lot of fear in the stock market. But if you invested then, you probably would have lost lots of money because the fear is still going on as we speak. It is a similar idea to "buy when there is blood in the streets." How much blood is necessary though? Perhaps one cannot go wrong buying a fundamentally sound stock that has been beaten down 30%...

Is Testosterone to Blame for the Financial Crisis?

"Men with more of the sex hormone made riskier investments than guys with lower levels, according to a study published online yesterday in Evolution and Human Behavior. Just how much riskier? Those with 33 percent more testosterone than average men invested 10 percent more of their dough."

Is Testosterone to Blame for the Financial Crisis?
by Jordan Lite
http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/09/is-testosterone.html

Does Congress Always Take Off for Rosh Hashanah?

"No. Representatives get a break for Easter, Passover, Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, and Christmas Day. The Senate operates according to a very similar schedule, except it remains in session for Yom Kippur and, at least in 2008, for Rosh Hashanah. The holiday schedule can vary from year to year. Leaders from both parties set up a tentative list of days off every January, before Congress convenes. Lawmakers can adjust the schedule as needed and suspend holidays in case of an emergency."

Number of Jewish House Members: 29
Number of Jewish Senate Members: 13

Does Congress Always Take Off for Rosh Hashanah
by Abby Callard
http://www.slate.com/id/2201250/

What Makes a Lawyer "Special"

"Independence. A 'special prosecutor' is an outside lawyer brought in to investigate a government official accused of wrongdoing. He or she isn't directly accountable to the people or agency under investigation, avoiding the potential conflict of interest that a regular prosecutor would have."

What Makes a Lawyer "Special"
by Noreen Malone
http://www.slate.com/id/2201248/

The Atlas of the Real World

That out this series of 18 cool/unique maps...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/picturegalleries/3109042/The-Atlas-of-the-Real-World.html