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Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Monday, November 7, 2011

On "Experts"

Recently I've been thinking about how bad people are at making predictions.  The WSJ article below takes aim at weathermen, economists, sports experts, and political experts.  But one could probably pick almost any profession and find that many (most?) predictions are wrong in that field.  Yet somehow, everyone still gets paid.  Will online prediction markets take over where humans fail?  Will people still get paid generously to make many less-than-accurate predictions?  When will more people take notice of this?

Some Expert Advice: Get a Clue
by Joe Queenan
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204528204577011842524257440.html