"Since 1875, national leaders have survived more than 239 assassination attempts and 59 leaders have been killed. In a study of assassinations of poitical leaders worldwide, we found that in some cases assassinations actually led to greater democracy. However, 80% of all assassinations atempts fail, and a dictator may clamp down in responses to a botched attempt, so a misfire may really backfire."
Success of Assassination Attempt (Based on Type of Weapon) --
*Gun: 161 Observed Attempts - 28%
*Explosive Device: 91 Observed Attempts - 5%
*Knife: 23 Observed Attempts - 13%
*Other: 19 Observed Attempts - 16%
*Unknown: 10 Observed Attempts - 40%
Location --
Abroad: 12 Observed Attempts - 25%
At home: 286 Observed Attempts - 20%
Aiming High
by Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken
http://www.nber.org/~bolken/press/0706washingtonpost_assassin.pdf
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Probability of success using an "unknown weapon" is high - how can such attempts be "observed" while the mean of delivery was not "observed"?
Going back to the Sandy Berger article. I would like to find out whether President Clinton "ordered" bin-Laden's assassination or not. I should take a closer look at the 9/11 Commission Report...
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